A Fool’s Errand
Please don’t play the ‘What if?’ game at my table. By Al O’ Grady
I know I speak for a lot of dealers when I say that we are people watchers. We look at players and observe how they act and react to given situations. We notice both the how and the why. But there is one thing that several players do that constantly baffles me. They constantly play the “what if” game after the hand has been played.
The “what if” game is simply this. Let us say a player took a card, got a 10 and busted. After the hand has been played, a player will speak up and say, If you stuck on your hand the dealer would get that 10 and he would have busted, and we all would have won. This “what if” game is pointless. It is an incredible waste of time and energy, and serves absolutely no purpose.
Here is a ridiculous example: Let us say you are last to act (aka “the anchor”) and you have a hard 18 and the dealer shows a six. Naturally, you stick. This is a no-brainer. Let us say the dealer’s down card is a 10. He has 16. Everyone is feeling good right now, expecting him to bust, but the dealer turns over a three for a 19. Everyone loses. The one playing the “what if” game sarcastically speaks up and says that if you took that card, you would have had a 21 and the dealer could have busted, and we all could have won. Let us see what the next card is.
He is not serious, because no one in his right mind would take a card on a hard 18. Yet people continually go through this “what if” game. Why? Are you going to take a card the next time you have an 18 against a dealer’s six? Of course not, so why do players constantly go through this pointless exercise? What purpose does it serve? Is this supposed to soften the blow in some way? Does it give your ego a boost knowing you are above the game in some way? Trust me, there are better ways. This is nothing but a fool’s errand.
Browbeating the Players
Now let us change this scenario slightly. Instead of having a hard 18, you have a soft 18 (ace and a seven). Let us say you stick, which is the incorrect play. Again the dealer turns over his 10 for a 16 and then pulls a three for a 19. You and the rest of the table have lost. The “what-if” players are now in full swing. They say, You should have doubled down according to basic strategy. They make you feel so much better by letting you know that not only would you have won, but you would have won twice as much since your soft 18 would have been a 21. They watch the first card of the next hand to see if the dealer would have busted and, if he would have, they continue to berate your play.
On a certain level, it can be done as a form of constructive criticism for a novice player. Other players at the table may be trying to mentor the individual by showing him the rationale as to why his play was incorrect. I get that and I can accept that to a point; however, many times when the “what if” players are doing it only for their own satisfaction and not as a coachable moment.
This entire process can unnecessarily cause disharmony among the players at the table. As the saying goes, hindsight is 20-20. It is so true when it comes to blackjack. But players need to be constantly reminded that, just because they lost, it does not mean they played the hand wrong. Conversely, just because they won a hand, it does not mean they played it right either. After all, it is called gambling. Nothing is a sure thing in blackjack.
Rewriting History
For those that take part in the “what if” game, is it going to change anything? The hand has been played and it is now history. Do you think the casino will allow you to replay your hand? Are you going to remember this hand exactly and replay it differently when the exact same situation arises six months from now? If so, in our first example when you have a hard 18 against a six are you going to hit? After all, you got a three last time.
The key thing is to play perfect strategy consistently. Yes, there are times when you will lose and the “what if” game will thrive. But perfect strategy does not mean you will win 100 percent of the time. It is simply the optimal percentage play over the long run.
What makes a dealer laugh at a player (we keep it to ourselves, of course) happens when someone makes the correct strategic play and loses the hand, but the “what if” player takes part in his useless exercise and notices that if the player had done the opposite the whole table would have won. Not only is the “what if” player wasting time and energy with the exercise, he also has it wrong too by going against basic strategy. Put another way, I am going to criticize your play with the “what if” game and then I am going to show you a sub-optimal, losing strategy that has been proven wrong by millions of hands of computer simulation. The “what if” game is made by losers, for losers.
Winners and Losers
So, what is the difference between a winner and a loser? A winner will credit his good luck when luck had nothing to do with it. A loser will blame his bad luck. Again, luck had nothing to do with it. A winner does not make excuses. He has a logical, well-laid-out plan and follows it. He knows there are times he will either win or lose. In either case he takes responsibility for his actions and does not blame others, but if he comes up short, he takes it like a man and walks out with his head held high. He does not play the “what if” game because, if he had to do it all over again, he would do the exact same thing.
A loser makes excuses. It is never his fault. It is the dealer’s fault, the continuous shuffler, the economy, the weather, the government or anything else he can pin it on. He plays hunches and ignores basic strategy and he constantly plays the “what if” game after a losing session, blaming other players for his demise. The “what if” game is a way of taking the sting out of a loss. If he would only channel that same energy into winning habits, he just might have a more enjoyable outcome at the end of the day. Please do not play the “what if” game at my table. Be a winner.
Good luck at the tables and do not forget to tip the dealer.
There are also a lot of roulette betting strategies as well as the various casino bonuses but they are for another edition of Casino Life Magazine.
*** This exclusive feature article was originally published in February 2025 edition of Casino Life Magazine Issue 174***
